Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market (2025 - 2033) Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Installation (New Construction, Retrofit/Replacement), By Equipment Type (Air Conditioners, Heat Pump, Dehumidifiers), By End Use, By Region, And Segment Forecasts

Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Summary

The global commercial split HVAC systems market size was estimated at USD 16,901.6 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 36,929.6 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8.8% from 2025 to 2033. The global commercial split HVAC systems industry is primarily driven by the growing demand for energy-efficient climate control solutions in commercial buildings.

Rising energy costs and stringent environmental regulations have encouraged the adoption of split systems that offer high efficiency, flexible installation, and lower operational expenses.Another major driving factor is the increasing integration of smart technologies and IoT-enabled controls in HVAC systems. Businesses are focusing on optimizing indoor air quality and energy management through intelligent automation and real-time monitoring.

Moreover, the rising emphasis on green buildings and the growing preference for systems that support variable refrigerant flow (VRF) technology are further accelerating market growth. These advancements enhance performance, reduce carbon footprints, and support global sustainability goals.

Market Concentration & Characteristics

The global commercial split HVAC systems industry is moderately concentrated, with a few major players such as Daikin, Carrier, Trane, and Mitsubishi Electric holding significant market shares. These companies dominate through strong brand presence, advanced technology integration, and wide distribution networks. However, regional and emerging manufacturers are steadily gaining ground by offering cost-effective and energy-efficient solutions tailored to local needs. This balance of global giants and regional competitors keeps the market dynamic and competitive, driving continuous innovation and product development.

The commercial split HVAC systems industry demonstrates a high degree of innovation, driven by the growing demand for energy-efficient and smart climate solutions. Manufacturers are investing heavily in R&D to introduce inverter-based compressors, variable refrigerant flow systems, and AI-enabled control technologies. Innovations are also focused on enhancing indoor air quality and reducing carbon emissions. This technological evolution is transforming split HVAC systems into intelligent, connected solutions that optimize comfort and sustainability.

The commercial split HVAC systems industry has witnessed a steady level of mergers and acquisitions as leading players aim to expand their global footprint and technological capabilities. Strategic collaborations are helping companies strengthen their product portfolios, enter new regional markets, and integrate advanced digital solutions. Acquisitions of smaller, specialized firms have become a key approach to accessing niche technologies and sustainable product innovations. This trend contributes to market consolidation while encouraging competitiveness among top players.

Government regulations related to energy efficiency, environmental protection, and refrigerant usage have a strong impact on the commercial split HVAC systems industry. Policies promoting low-GWP refrigerants and higher SEER ratings are pushing manufacturers to redesign their products. Compliance with global standards such as ASHRAE, ENERGY STAR, and EU F-Gas regulations is shaping product innovation and production strategies. These regulations not only ensure sustainability but also create opportunities for eco-friendly and next-generation HVAC solutions.

Drivers, Opportunities & Restraints

The global commercial split HVAC systems industry is driven by increasing urbanization and rapid growth in commercial construction projects. Rising awareness of energy efficiency and cost-effective climate control solutions is encouraging the adoption of advanced split systems. Technological advancements, including smart and IoT-enabled split HVAC solutions, further support market expansion. In addition, stringent environmental regulations are prompting businesses to invest in sustainable and eco-friendly systems.

Significant opportunities exist in emerging economies where commercial infrastructure is expanding rapidly. The integration of AI, IoT, and smart building technologies opens avenues for innovative and connected HVAC solutions. Growing demand for green buildings and energy-efficient systems presents new market potential. Manufacturers can also capitalize on retrofitting older commercial systems with modern split HVAC units to enhance efficiency and reduce energy costs.

High initial investment and installation costs continue to restrain market growth, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. Complexity in system integration and maintenance can also limit adoption in certain regions. Fluctuating raw material prices and supply chain challenges add pressure on manufacturers. Moreover, stringent regulatory compliance requirements may increase production costs and slow market entry for new players.

Installation Insights

New construction segment is expected to grow at a fastest CAGR of 9.1% from 2025 to 2033. The retrofit and replacement segment led the market with the largest revenue share of 60.3% in 2024, due to the large existing base of outdated HVAC units. Businesses are increasingly replacing older systems with energy-efficient and environmentally friendly models to reduce operational costs. Upgrading to modern split systems also helps in complying with stricter energy and environmental regulations. The focus on improving indoor air quality and system performance further drives this segment’s growth.

The new construction segment is anticipated to grow at the fastest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by rapid urbanization and expansion of commercial infrastructure. Developers are increasingly incorporating advanced split HVAC systems during the building design phase for better efficiency and comfort. The adoption of smart, IoT-enabled, and VRF technologies in new projects is further accelerating growth. In addition, sustainability trends and green building certifications encourage the installation of modern HVAC solutions in newly constructed commercial spaces.

Equipment Type Insights

The heat pump segment is expected to grow at a fastest CAGR of 9.7% from 2025 to 2033.The air conditioners segment led the market with the largest revenue share of 42.2% in 2024, due to their widespread use in offices, retail spaces, and institutional buildings. Their reliability, ease of installation, and cost-effectiveness make them the preferred choice for most commercial applications. In addition, continuous improvements in energy efficiency and cooling performance reinforce their market leadership. Growing demand for comfortable indoor environments across various sectors further sustains their dominance.

The heat pump segment is expected to grow at the fastest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by increasing emphasis on energy efficiency and sustainability. Heat pumps offer both heating and cooling capabilities while significantly reducing energy consumption. Adoption is further supported by government incentives and regulations promoting low-carbon solutions. Technological advancements, including inverter-driven and smart heat pump systems, are accelerating their deployment in commercial buildings worldwide.

End Use Insights

The data centers segment is expected to grow at the fastest CAGR of 12.1% from 2025 to 2033. The office segment led the market with the largest revenue share of 24.2% in 2024, due to the high concentration of commercial buildings requiring consistent and reliable climate control. Energy-efficient air conditioning solutions are increasingly adopted to maintain employee comfort and productivity. Retrofit and replacement of older systems in existing office buildings further boost demand. The focus on indoor air quality and regulatory compliance also reinforces the segment’s leading position.

The data center segment is anticipated to grow at the fastest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by the exponential rise in digital services and cloud computing. Effective temperature and humidity control are critical to maintaining optimal server performance and preventing equipment failure. Energy-efficient and high-capacity split HVAC systems are increasingly deployed to meet these stringent cooling requirements. Rapid expansion of data infrastructure globally continues to propel market growth in this segment.

Regional Insights

The commercial split HVAC systems market in North America is anticipated to grow at a significant CAGR of 8.7% during the forecast period, due to the increasing focus on energy efficiency and green building certifications. Technological advancements such as IoT-enabled and smart HVAC systems are being widely adopted in offices, retail, and institutional buildings. Replacement of older systems with modern, efficient units drives growth. Supportive government incentives and strict energy regulations further enhance market expansion.

U.S. Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Trends

The commercial split HVAC systems market in the U.S. accounted for the largest market revenue share in North America in 2024, due to the extensive commercial infrastructure and high demand for energy-efficient solutions. Strict government regulations on energy consumption and emissions drive the adoption of advanced HVAC technologies. Retrofit and replacement of older systems in offices, retail, and institutional buildings further boost demand. In addition, technological innovations such as smart and IoT-enabled systems reinforce market leadership.

The Canada commercial split HVAC systems market is growing steadily as commercial construction and urban development expand across key cities. Rising awareness of energy efficiency and sustainable building practices is encouraging the adoption of modern split HVAC systems. Government incentives and regulations supporting low-carbon and eco-friendly technologies further drive growth. The focus on retrofitting existing buildings with high-performance HVAC solutions also contributes to market expansion.

Asia Pacific Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Trends

Asia Pacific dominated the commercial split HVAC systems market with the largest revenue share of 47.5% in 2024, owing to rapid urbanization, industrialization, and expanding commercial infrastructure. Countries like China, India, and Japan are witnessing high adoption of energy-efficient and smart HVAC solutions. Growing awareness of sustainability and stringent environmental regulations further drive demand. The presence of major manufacturers and competitive pricing also supports the region’s leading position.

The commercial split HVAC systems market in China dominates the Asia Pacific region, due to rapid urbanization, industrial growth, and large-scale commercial construction projects. Strong government initiatives promoting energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies drive the adoption of modern HVAC solutions. The presence of major domestic and international manufacturers enhances product availability and competitiveness. In addition, rising demand for smart and IoT-enabled systems supports sustained market leadership.

The India commercial split HVAC systems market is growing rapidly, fueled by expanding commercial infrastructure and increasing investment in office spaces, retail, and hospitality sectors. Rising awareness of energy-efficient and environmentally friendly HVAC solutions is encouraging adoption. Government incentives and regulations for sustainable building practices further boost market growth. The trend of retrofitting older systems with advanced split HVAC units is also accelerating demand.

Europe Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Trends

The commercial split HVAC systems market in Europe is witnessing growth due to stringent environmental regulations and strong emphasis on sustainable construction practices. Energy-efficient split HVAC systems are increasingly used in both retrofit and new construction projects. Adoption of smart building technologies and renewable energy integration is rising. The region’s focus on reducing carbon footprints contributes to increasing demand for advanced HVAC solutions.

The Germany commercial split HVAC systems market dominates the European region due to its advanced industrial base and strong emphasis on energy efficiency. Stringent regulations on building energy performance and low-emission technologies drive the adoption of modern HVAC solutions. Retrofit and replacement of older systems in commercial buildings further support market growth. In addition, technological innovations and the presence of leading HVAC manufacturers strengthen Germany’s market leadership.

The commercial split HVAC systems market in UK is growing steadily, fueled by expanding commercial infrastructure and increased focus on sustainable building practices. Energy-efficient and smart HVAC systems are increasingly adopted in offices, retail spaces, and public institutions. Government incentives and regulatory support for low-carbon solutions promote market development. The trend of upgrading existing systems to modern, high-performance units also contributes to ongoing growth.

Middle East & Africa Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Trends

The commercial split HVAC systems market in the Middle East and Africa is driven by rapid commercial construction and increasing demand for efficient cooling in extreme climates. Large-scale commercial projects, including offices, malls, and hospitality infrastructure, are adopting advanced split HVAC systems. Energy efficiency and sustainability trends are gaining importance. Government initiatives promoting modern and eco-friendly HVAC solutions further accelerate market growth.

The Saudi Arabia commercial split HVAC systems market is growing due to rapid urbanization and large-scale commercial and infrastructure projects. The extreme climate drives high demand for efficient and reliable cooling solutions in offices, malls, and hospitality sectors. Government initiatives promoting energy efficiency and sustainable building practices support market expansion. In addition, the adoption of advanced, smart, and eco-friendly HVAC technologies is accelerating growth in the region.

Latin America Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Trends

The commercial split HVAC systems market in Latin America is expanding as urbanization and commercial development accelerate across key economies like Brazil and Argentina. Businesses are upgrading older HVAC systems to improve energy efficiency and indoor comfort. The introduction of eco-friendly refrigerants and energy-efficient technologies supports growth. Rising investment in new commercial infrastructure also drives market adoption.

The Brazil commercial split HVAC systems market is growing due to increasing urbanization and expansion of commercial infrastructure across major cities. Rising awareness of energy-efficient and environmentally friendly solutions is driving adoption in offices, retail spaces, and hospitality sectors. Retrofit and replacement of outdated systems further contribute to market growth. In addition, government initiatives supporting sustainable building practices and modern HVAC technologies are boosting demand.

Key Commercial Split HVAC Systems Company Insights

Some of the key players operating in the market include Carrier, Johnson Controls, and Trane

• Carrier is a global leader in innovative heating, ventilation, and air conditioning solutions, specializing in energy-efficient commercial and industrial systems. The company focuses on developing advanced HVAC technologies, including variable refrigerant flow systems and smart controls, to optimize energy consumption. Carrier has a strong portfolio of sustainable solutions that comply with stringent environmental regulations worldwide. Its emphasis on research and development allows it to deliver high-performance systems tailored to diverse commercial applications. The company also provides comprehensive service and maintenance programs to enhance system reliability and longevity.

• Johnson Controls is a prominent provider of building technologies and HVAC solutions, with a focus on integrating smart, connected systems for energy management. The company excels in designing high-efficiency commercial HVAC units, including chillers, air handling systems, and variable refrigerant flow solutions. Its products emphasize sustainability, helping clients meet green building certifications and reduce carbon footprints. Johnson Controls leverages advanced analytics and IoT-enabled monitoring to optimize building performance and operational efficiency. The company also supports large-scale retrofitting and modernization projects, enhancing the longevity and efficiency of existing HVAC infrastructure.

Recent Developments

• In June 2025, Haier acquired KLIMA KFT, a Hungarian HVAC firm, to strengthen its market reach in Central and Eastern Europe. This acquisition boosts Haier’s capacity to offer sustainable heating and cooling solutions locally. Combining KLIMA’s expertise with Haier’s innovation, it supports enhanced customer service in the region.

• In April 2025, Mitsubishi Electric introduced a new line of ductless, ducted mini-split, and VRF systems using low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants. These all-electric systems are designed to reduce environmental impact while providing efficient heating and cooling in various climates, aligning with evolving sustainability standards and decarbonization goals across residential and commercial applications. 

Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Report Scope

Global Commercial Split HVAC Systems Market Report Segmentation

This report forecasts revenue growth at global, regional, and country levels and provides an analysis of the latest industry trends in each of the sub-segments from 2021 to 2033. For this study, Grand View Research has segmented the global commercial split HVAC systems market report based on installation,equipment type, end use, and region. 

• Installation Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2021 - 2033)

  • New Construction

  • Retrofit/Replacement

• Equipment Type Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2021 - 2033)

  • Air Conditioners

  • Heat Pump

  • Dehumidifiers

  • Others

• End Use Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2021 - 2033)

  • Retail Shops

  • Offices

  • Healthcare Facilities

  • Hospitality

  • Schools & Educational Institutions

  • Laboratories

  • Data Centers

  • Others

• Regional Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2021 - 2033)

  • North America

    • U.S.

    • Canada

    • Mexico

  • Europe

    • Germany

    • France

    • Italy

    • Spain

    • UK

  • Asia Pacific

    • China

    • India

    • Japan

    • South Korea

    • Australia

  • Latin America

    • Brazil

    • Argentina

  • Middle East and Africa

    • Saudi Arabia

    • UAE